A recent Moody’s Analytics study predicts a close win for Joe Biden over Donald Trump in the forthcoming November presidential election, provided they are the final candidates for the Democratic and Republican parties.
Will Biden Win?
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The report, authored by chief economist Mark Zandi and his team, predicts Biden will surpass his 2020 electoral college tally by two votes, securing North Carolina but losing Arizona.
Analyzing the Odds
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Released at the end of January, the study evaluates potential outcomes based on historical voting trends, approval ratings, and economic indicators.
The Road to Rematch
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Biden and Trump, after their respective wins in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, appear to be on track for a rematch of the 2020 election.
A Tight Race
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The study concluded: “President Biden is expected to win re-election but by a thin margin, and the election could easily flip with only small shifts in the economy’s performance, his approval rating, voter turnout, and how well third-party candidates do. On the margin, political factors favor Trump’s candidacy, while economic factors favor Biden’s.”
Key Electoral States
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According to the study, Biden is projected to win 308 electoral college votes, just slightly above his 2020 count, with a razor-thin margin in key states like Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
The report cautions that these close races might lead to recounts and legal battles, potentially delaying the final result.
Biden’s Win Scenarios
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The analysis indicates Biden can afford to lose North Carolina and Nevada and still win, but dropping Georgia would bring him to the bare minimum for victory.
A loss in Pennsylvania, however, could spell defeat.
Economic Uncertainties Loom
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The study added: “If the economy continues to perform well as we anticipate and voter turnout and third-party vote share remain close to their recent historical norms, President Biden should win re-election. But these are big assumptions in a highly uncertain economic time and given our highly fractured and contentious politics.”
Winning Despite Criminal Cases
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Despite being embroiled in four criminal cases that might lead to incarceration before the November 5th election, Trump still enjoys robust support among Republican voters in the rural Midwest, according to opinion polls.
Independent Voters Sway Towards Biden
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As tensions escalate over border issues, a focal point in the upcoming elections, Joe Biden has widened his lead against Donald Trump in a projected 2024 face-off. This advantage is particularly notable among Independent voters, a potentially significant demographic.
Biden Leads Trump
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A Quinnipiac University poll shows Biden leading 50 to 44 percent, a rise from December’s 47 to 46 percent. Among Independent voters, Biden outpaces Trump by 52 to 40 percent in a direct contest.
Five-Way Race
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In a five-way hypothetical election, Biden garners 35 percent of Independent votes, compared to Trump’s 27 percent, while Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein also attract notable support.
Biden’s Border Crisis
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The current intense debate centers around President Biden’s legal options in addressing the humanitarian crisis at the U.S. southern border, where migrant apprehensions have hit record highs.
Border Shutdown Statement
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The discussion intensified following Biden’s statement to “shut down” the U.S.-Mexico border contingent on Congress approving a negotiated immigration deal.
Immigration Deal
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This agreement, still under wraps but described by sources to CBS News, would allow the executive branch to limit asylum processing under specific conditions of illegal border crossings.
Asylum Processing Limits
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Biden’s “shut down” comment is interpreted as a reference to tightening controls on illegal crossings and asylum requests, not a complete closure of the border, which would disrupt legal travel and trade, significantly impacting both U.S. and Mexican economies.
Trump Dismisses Political Motives
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Trump, leading the GOP race, recently dismissed claims that his resistance to the bipartisan border deal is an attempt to hinder Biden from achieving a legislative triumph.
Trump’s Take on Immigration
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Speaking to the press in Washington, D.C., after a meeting with Sean O’Brien, the Teamsters President, Trump denied having political motives behind his stance.
“No, I didn’t say that,” he asserted.
A ‘Great Border Bill’
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“I did say that you have, if you’re not gonna get a great border bill, an immigration bill, don’t do a bill,” Trump added. “If it’s not going to be good, if it’s not going to solve the border problem, don’t do the bill.”
