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Historian Who Correctly Predicted Almost Every Election Winner Since 1984 Reveals Who is Likely to Win in 2024

Allan Lichtman, an election prognosticator who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election — and in many cases, it proves to be accurate.

Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if “true” they are given a “key,” and if “false,” their competitor receives the point.

The “Keys to the White House” are being handed out, predicting President Biden currently holds a slight lead in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Donald Trump.

Thus far, Biden holds five of the “keys,” while Trump was able to capture about three, Lichtman revealed to MarketWatch. That leaves five keys still up for grabs, and enough room for the former president to secure a lead before November.

According to American University, where Lichtman teaches, the “keys” are as follows: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

While Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. met the requirements to appear on the Utah presidential election ballot, Biden was granted another “key” for not appearing to have any significant third party or independent primary challenge.

The Democrat was also given “keys” for having “real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms,” as well as implementing policy changes during his presidency.

Joe Biden

President Biden delivers remarks on the Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday. (Alex Wong)

Trump, however, secured key number one, which is granted to whoever’s political party holds the majority in the House of Representatives — which goes to the GOP.

Painting Biden as having a lack of charisma, Lichtman gave Trump the 12th key, and possibly another point if Biden fails to have “a major success in foreign or military affairs.”

Lichtman correctly predicted Trump would win the 2016 election, and thereafter that Biden would win the 2020 presidential election against Trump.

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